McIntosh cited an Assembly Insurance Committee report that projects EDD will have $53 million in overruns on projects funded by federal stimulus money.  That's in addition to $80 million in cost increases and delays on other computer upgrades.

"Quite frankly, if you were in the private sector, you would be fired," Assemblyman Charles Calderon, D-Whittier, told EDD officials at a recent hearing.

EDD officials denied there were cost overruns on federal stimulus project and defended the agency's performance, citing the record unemployment and a quadrupling of benefits being delivered.

Unemployed workers have complained for more than a year about jammed EDD phone lines, delays in checks and a general lack of responsiveness and confusion in trying to get help with their benefits.

Read the full Sacramento Bee story HERE.

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Legislators slam EDD is a post from: Handling Hard Times

It will be the first time in 20 years that pay increases will be below 3%, the Board said. With the Board expecting inflation to come in at 2.6%, that means workers will barely keep pace with rising costs this year.

Last April, the 285 employers surveyed by the Board expected to be raising pay 3% in 2010. When they were re-surveyed in November, 27.7% said they had revised their salary budgets down.  The median budget increase for salaries at those firms now is 2.5%.

“Despite five months of improvement in The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ suggesting that a turning point in job growth is on the horizon, recovery in compensation is probably a few years away,” says Gad Levanon, associate director of macroeconomic research at The Conference Board.

“In the previous three recessions, compensation began accelerating only several years after employment bottomed. High levels of unemployment allow businesses to limit raise demands from existing workers and hire workers from unemployment at lower compensation levels.”

Other findings in the report:

• Highest industry for median salary increases:  consulting services at 3% for non-exempt hourly workers
• Lowest industry for median salary increases: banking at 2%
• Median merit pay increase: 2.5%

Did you miss these recent stories on jobs and the economy ...

Planned pay increases at 25-year low is a post from: Handling Hard Times

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported there were 52,000 new temp jobs created by U.S. employers in January.  That's the fourth straight month of growth, although well down from the 95,000 new jobs reported in November.  Still, there were 250,000 more temp workers on U.S. payrolls in January than in September.

"ASA members are reporting increases in demand for temporary and contract employees across virtually all sectors throughout the country," says Richard Wahlquist, chief executive of the American Staffing Association. “Because staffing is a leading employment indicator, the continued uptick in temporary employment bodes well for overall job growth.”

A general rule of thumb is that temp jobs, if they are not simply seasonal, become permanent after about six months.  If that holds true, by April or May there should be a bump up in people moving into permanent positions. (Click on chart to enlarge.)

The BLS numbers are adjusted for seasonal variations.  The ASA noted that January is typically a bad month for temp employment compared to December. The BLS's non-seasonally adjusted figure for U.S. temp work was down 7.2%  from December to January or 143,700 jobs.  By ASA's count,  temp work in the U.S. fell 6.0%  without the seasonal adjustment.

January employment numbers for Orange County won't be released until March 5.  However, temp employment rose 300, to 51,000, in the last three months of 2009.   That was still 400 below December 2008.

Did you miss these recent stories on jobs and the economy ...

Temp work pointing to a recovery? is a post from: Handling Hard Times

The LAO projects the unemployment rate out to 2015.  It estimated unemployment will be slow to drop and remain at an average 6.9% in 2015.

As an indication of how bad things are in this recovery, the California Budget Project notes that in the 2002-03 recession, the unemployment rate peaked at 6.8%. Here's the chart, courtesy of the California Budget Project. (Click to enlarge.)

Read the California Budget Projects analysis of the state's financial situation and how it could affect the poor and unemployed HERE.

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Double-digit unemployment through 2012? is a post from: Handling Hard Times

Called the earned income tax credit, it is aimed at workers who don't make a lot of money to help offset the Social Security taxes they pay and to encourage them to stay on the job. You may be eligible if you earned less than $48,279 last year.

Orange County's relatively high incomes have disqualified a lot of people in the past, but as the recession took hold in the last two years, more people are finding themselves eligible.

Last year 159,000 Orange County residents claimed $304 million in earned income tax credits on their 2008 tax returns, said IRS spokesman Raphael Tulino.

The tax credit is based on income and family size.  Here are the maximum incomes for 2009:

• $43,279 ($48,279 married filing jointly) with three or more qualifying children
• $40,295 ($45,295 married filing jointly) with two qualifying children
• $35,463 ($40,463 married filing jointly) with one qualifying child
• $13,440 ($18,440 married filing jointly) with no qualifying children

The maximum tax credit for 2009 is:

• $5,657 with three or more qualifying children
• $5,028 with two qualifying children
• $3,043 with one qualifying child
• $457 with no qualifying children

If you lost your job in 2008 and your income plunged, you can file an amended 2008 return and also claim the earned income tax credit.  For more on the program, go to the IRS Web site HERE.

Sound too complicated and need some help?  There are several local programs for free tax help for the low-income and elderly:

• IRS Volunteer Income Tax Assistance (VITA): Call 800-829-1040 to find a location.
• United Way Orange County.  Go the Web site for a list of locations and phone numbers.
• Legal Aid Society of Orange County: Call 714-571-5259 for an appointment.
• AARP Tax Counseling for the Elderly: 888-227-7669 or the AARP Web site.

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Unemployed? Tax relief may be on the way is a post from: Handling Hard Times

And guys are the big spenders averaging $158 for their parties while the women only will fork out $129.

The 18- to 34-year-olds will average $154 and the 35- to 54-year olds, $144.  Those 55+ will manage on $117.

So tell us ...

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$144 for a Super Bowl bash? is a post from: Handling Hard Times

Attitudes of Service Lab -- A free workshop by Dale Carnegie of Orange County will focus on applying an “attitude of service” by going the extra mile and being an advocate for others.  Attendees will learn how to apply behaviors of helpfulness, genuine interest, and respect for others, towards a successful career transition.

When: 1-4 p.m.

Where: 1805 East Dyer Road, Suite #109, Santa Ana

Contact: RSVP (required) at (949) 474-1843

Monday, Feb. 8

Job Search Workshop -- Self help and support group for job searchers facilitated by executives sharing knowledge and experience with professional outplacement services. Resumes, creating an employment seeking plan, resources, references and support. Dr. Steven Harris, licensed practicing psychologist is available Friday afternoons by appointment to assist with interview techniques and personal confidence.

When: 10 a.m. - 12 p.m.

Where: St. Paul's Episcopal Church, Tustin

Contact: Event website

Tuesday, Feb. 9

Recruitment -- The U.S. Census Bureau is recruiting for the following positions: lister, crew leader, crew leader assistant, recruiting assistant, and office clerk. Bilingual candidates are encouraged to apply, English proficiency is required. Pre-registration is required.

When: 1:30 p.m. – 3:30 p.m.

Where: Orange County One-Stop Center, 5405 Garden Grove Blvd., Suite 100,  Westminster

Contact: Call 1-866-861-2010 to register. Applicants must be registered on CalJOBS^SM and bring authorization to work documents (Social Security card and photo identification).

..............................

Employment Networking Night -- Are you looking for a job, a better career or in need of good employees ? The Employment Networking Night is open for all those looking for employment or a better opportunity and for those with a desire to help. Sponsored by The Orange County Chapter of the BYU Management Society and LDS Employment Resource Services.

When: 7-8:30 p.m.

Where: The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, 23 Lake Rd., Irvine.

Contact: Event's website.

Wednesday, Feb. 10

Computers Basic Workshop -- This workshop will assist job seekers develop computer skills.

When: 8:30 a.m. – 11:30 a.m.

Where: Orange County One-Stop Center, 5405 Garden Grove Blvd., Suite 100, Westminster

Contact: Joleen Le  (714) 241-4948

..............................

Overcoming Barriers Workshop -- This workshop will prepare previously incarcerated individuals to re-enter the job market.

When: 2-4 p.m.

Where: Santa Ana W/O/R/K Center, 1000 E., Santa Ana Blvd., Suite 220
Westminster

Contact: Tejdeep Kochhar (714) 565-2662

..............................

Recareering Bootcamp -- This session, in an ongoing series, will focus on interviewing.

When: 7:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m.

Where: Mission Viejo Library, Saddleback Room

Contact: Event website

Thursday, Feb. 11

Veterans Networking -- The Veterans Networking Roundtable Job Club provides information on employment opportunities, workshops, and services for veterans. Pre-registration required.

When: 9a.m. - 11 a.m.

Where: Orange County One-Stop Center, 5405 Garden Grove Blvd., Suite 100, Westminster

Contact: Steve DeFord (714) 241-4954

Saturday, Feb. 13

When: 11 a.m.

Where: Barnes & Noble, Long Beach Towne Center, 7651 Carson Blvd.

Contact: Event website

Calendar of job events, Feb. 7-14 is a post from: Handling Hard Times

The National Employment Law Project's estimate includes 311,465 Californians who will exhaust their initial 26 weeks of state unemployment without any extensions and 544,064 who will be cut off from federal benefits if there is no extension.  It does not include the thousands of people who will exhaust their maximum of 99 weeks of unemployment.

Nationwide, NELP projects that nearly 5 million people will exhaust their initial 26 weeks of state benefits or lose their federal benefits prematurely without an extension of the program. (See the state-by-state breakdown HERE.)

Just before Christmas, Congress approved a stop-gap measure that continued several unemployment extensions and other benefits until the end of February.

Legislators are now working on a jobs bill that will include an as-yet undetermined extension of the current benefits. NELP says a Senate proposal would extend eligibility for the current benefits through May. The current extra $25-a-week in unemployment benefits and the 65% government subsidy for COBRA health insurance premiums also are expected to be included.

It is unclear whether Congress will add another extension beyond the current 99-week maximum.

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855,000 Californians could lose jobless benefits by June is a post from: Handling Hard Times

The company is bringing in about two dozen workers from its Michigan satellite facility on March 1 and will then hire "many times that number," said Fisker spokesman Russell Datz.

He did not give a specific number of new hires or when they would be brought on.

The Irvine headquarters will house Fiskers' design, engineering, sales, marketing and administrative operations.

Fisker plans to begin selling its Karma hybrid plug-in sports car later this year.  The company said the staff expansion is to accelerate development of its next generation of plug-in hybrids, dubbed Project NINA.

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Irvine hybrid auto company adding staff is a post from: Handling Hard Times

Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 9.7% in January from a revised 10% in December because 541,000 more people were employed last month.  If you include people who are working part-time but want to work full-time and those who want jobs but gave up looking, the unemployment rate was 16.5%.

The report included annual adjustments to earlier estimates that showed the recession has hit workers even worse than originally reported.  The revision shows 8.4 million people have lost their jobs since the recession officially began in December of 2007, up from the 7.2 million previously reported.

January has always been a difficult month to estimate employment changes because so many holiday workers get laid off. Experts this year had estimated there would be anywhere from 50,000 job losses in January to a gain of 50,000.

On Wednesday, ADP, the automated payroll company, estimated that private employers cut 22,000 jobs in January. Chapman University economist Esmael Adibi expected a job loss of 30,000 and an unemployment rate of 10.1%

January unemployment numbers for Orange County and California will not be released until March 5.

Read a full analysis of the January jobs numbers in the Associated Press story HERE.

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U.S. loses 20,000 jobs in January is a post from: Handling Hard Times

COSTA MESA — Hundreds of job-seekers flooded a job fair in Irvine today, some hopeful, most frustrated, others desperate.

Terrina Mayor, 50, of Santa Ana, has been out of work for six months and was hoping she would get some leads. The veteran medical biller said she gets hopeful when she gets an interview, since the field is competitive. But Mayor said she rarely gets that second call, since there are so many people applying for the jobs.

(photo by Diego Robles, Orange County Register)

“I’m irritated. Frustrated. I just had an interview,” she said. “But it’s like a revolving door. I was walking out and the next candidate was walking in.”

Chris Wulf, 49, showed up when the doors at the Westin South Coast Plaza opened at 10 a.m., only to be kept waiting in line outside because there were so many people trying to get in. Wulf, of Costa Mesa, is a drafter who hasn’t worked for six months. The temp agencies have dried up, he said, and he’s living with his parents.

“It’s rough,” he said. “I go on interviews. It looks good. Then they cancel the job at the last minute.”

Wulf was hoping to get a six-month job with an engineering firm that would work into a permanent position.

Laverne Roberts was one of the many laid-off workers from mortgage companies and was attending her third job fair in just a few weeks. Roberts said she and others have learned that the job fairs are frustrating because even after waiting in line for hours, when they finally meet up with a company’s representative, they are told to go to a Web site and look for openings there.

“You hear this from everybody: ‘What can we do? We have to try these (fairs) to see if there’s a possibility,’” she said. “It’s just frustrating.”

Roberts was still at the back of the line by about 11 a.m. and decided to cut her losses after picking up one of the promotional packages. She said she was  heading back to her Anaheim home to check the companies’ Web sites. Meanwhile, people were lined up five deep at the Carrington Mortgage Holdings booth inside.

Unemployment in Orange County hit 9.2% in June, a modern-day record. Job fairs since the mortgage meltdown have attracted hundreds of applicants and some people were running into familiar faces. People traded war stories and tips while waiting in line, wondered aloud if they were wearing the right clothing and signed up to listen to a monster.com representative give a workshop on interviewing techniques.

The job fair was sponsored by monster.com and the Orange County Register.

Employers were hopeful but overwhelmed. Tara Cucci, a recuiter for MeriCal, was looking to fill 23 jobs in the company’s vitamin manufacturing plant. Her email inbox is flooded with 500 job applicants every time she posts an opening on monster.com, she said, but she’s looking for experienced people with a background in manufacturing.

Amy Morita, a recruiter for Wet Seal, the teen fashion retailer, said she was at the fair because her predeccessor signed up for it. She was pessimistic that she would find good candidates for the ten jobs she needed to fill in the company’s retail stores. Morita said she most frequently looks for people at Wet Seal’s competitors.

“I think the best way to find people, truly, is networking, to find people you already know in the industry,” she said.

Phil Ortiz, 44, of Westminister, was one of the few optimists in the crowd. He’s been out of work for about a month — laid off from his general contractor job in Long Beach — and said he’s trying to enjoy his time off. His mother is visiting from Texas this week and he took her to a Smokey Robinson concert.

“I’ve seen it since I was a kid,” he said of the ups and downs of the job market. “So I’m just going with the flow as the years go by.”

Still, Ortiz hoped to get a job with British Petroleum, where his son used to work, as he thinks it’s a good company.

“Heck, I’ll push a broom for a while,” he said.

Unemployed flood Costa Mesa job fair is a post from: OC Business News

Many readers argued that since English is the dominant language in this country, only that language should be spoken in the workplace.

Others argued that having bilingual employees could be an asset to a company and that employees’ rights to speak their native tongue should be respected at work. At least one argued that freedom of speech includes the freedom to speak another language.

Background: Skilled Healthcare Group Inc., which owns nursing homes, assisted living centers, a rehabilitation business and hospice care business in six Western states, settled a discrimination claim out of court rather than fight what its lawyer called false accusations of discrimination.

The U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission filed a class-action suit against Skilled Healthcare after about 53 employees complained that they were banned from speaking Spanish at work, even though Filipino employees were not disciplined for speaking Tagalog.

The suit alleged that Hispanic employees also received less-desirable assignments and fewer promotions.

An attorney for the firm denied that any form of discrimination existed, adding that the incidents were alleged to have occurred under previous management.

Either way, the EEOC maintains that it’s illegal to discriminate against employees based on their national origin.

What do you think?

In other business news …

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POLL: Should employers be able to ban Spanish at work? is a post from: OC Business News

The U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission suit also maintained that while Spanish was forbidden, Filipino employees at facilities owned by Skilled HealthCare Group Inc. were not disciplined or terminated for speaking Tagalog at work.

An attorney for Skilled Healthcare denied that such discrimination ever occurred, adding that the case was based on events dating back to 2002, before the current management had acquired the firm.

The EEOC filed a class action suit against Skilled HealthCare Group in 2005. The Orange County-based company owns skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, a rehabilitation therapy business and a hospice business in California and five other Western states.

Skilled Healthcare signed a consent decree settling the suit without admitting guilt. Thomas Mackey, the firm’s lawyer, said the company agreed to the settlement to avoid the cost and time involved in fighting the charges.

“It made more sense to work out a constructive resolution of the problem rather than keep banging our heads against one another,” Mackey said.

The lawsuit arose from a charge of discrimination by a Spanish-speaking janitor, Jose Zazueta, who maintained that he doesn’t speak English, according to an EEOC statement. Zazueta was fired from Skilled Healthcare’s Royalwood Care Center in Torrance for violating the company’s English-only policy, the statement said.

The EEOC reported that 53 past and present Hispanic employees in California and Texas were prohibited from speaking Spanish to Spanish-speaking patients or were disciplined for speaking Spanish in the parking lot while on breaks.

Additionally, the EEOC alleged that defendants gave Hispanic employees less desirable work, paid them less and promoted them less often.

“In the most diverse state in the nation, employers should not single out certain languages or cultures for harsher treatment,” said EEOC Los Angeles Regional Attorney Anna Park.

Mackey said, however, that the incidents cited in the suit are up to six years old.

“We’re looking in the rear-view mirror quite a ways with regards to this particular issue,” he said.

Mackey said that the company was prepared to challenge evidence of discrimination had the case gone to trial. He also denied that Zazueta only speaks Spanish, an important technicality. Employers do have a right to require that bilingual employees speak only English at work, he said.

Mackey added that the company’s skilled nursing care affiliates encourage the use of languages in the workplace that both respects the dignity of its residents and the rights of its employees.

“For example, employees are not only allowed, but actually encouraged, to speak to residents in languages other than English where that will make such residents feel comfortable and respected,” Mackey said.

He added that Skilled Healthcare’s president, President Jose Lynch, is Hispanic himself.

As part of the settlement, Skilled Healthcare agreed to:

• Pay $180,000, which the EEOC will divide among the 53 employees included in the suit.
• Provide English proficiency classes for the 53 employees, plus an additional $2,500 to every employee who passes the course. Those opting not to take the course will get a $1,000 payment instead.
• Provide anti-discrimination training at its facilities and undergo monitoring to make sure it’s in compliance with anti-discrimination laws.

In other business news …

• To inflate or not to inflate? A story of appraisers
• JWA passenger traffic drops 13% in March
• O.C. business owners win honors
• Financier denies fraud in fund scheme, resume
• O.C. firm succeeds in second stock offering of 2009
• Fed upgrades housing in West to feeble
• Mall titan’s O.C. property not involved in bankruptcy filing
• So. Cal. inflation vanishes in March
• SoCal renters get a break for fourth straight month
• Surf City’s $1M-plus short sales: A stroll to the beach
• Average sold price drops in beach city home sales
• Pay what you want for breakfast at Johnny Rebs’ in Orange
• 2 more Fashion Island stores to close
• Z Gallerie files for bankruptcy protection

Firm settles claim it banned Spanish is a post from: OC Business News

The school’s Composite Index for Orange County, based on the expectations of 119 local purchasing managers, rose to 40.3 in the second quarter from 33.9 in the first three months. A number under 50 indicates contraction, above 50 is expansion.

California as a whole was doing even better with the composite index for manufacturing rising to 45.1 for the next three months from 40.9 in the first quarter.

Chapman economist Raymond Sfeir, who oversees the survey, says Orange County’s non-durable goods manufacturers pulled down the local index.

Overall, he thinks manufacturing may have bottomed in the first quarter.

“It is still contracting, but it looks like it is moderating,” he says.

The Chapman survey is the second indication the economy may be turning.  On Monday Cal State Fullerton’s quarterly Orange County Business Expectations survey showed a slight improvement in the outlook of local companies.

Several components in the Chapman Orange County manufacturing index show signs a turnaround may be underway:

• Production: Expected to jump from 29.9 in the first quarter to 43.4 in the second quarter
• New orders: Seen rising from 33.2 to 40.4
• Employment: A continued decline but at a slower rate, moving from 29.9 to 34.3

Among specific Orange County sectors:

• Durable goods: Up from 30.7 to 40.9
• Non-durable goods: Edging higher from 34.9 to 37.1
• High tech: Rising from 36.8 to 42.2

Read the Chapman full report HERE.

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O.C. manufacturing downturn eases is a post from: OC Business News

The overall business expectations index increased to 22.7 this quarter from 15.2 in January. While still low — a number below 50 means negative expectations, above 50 is an improving outlook — the index at least is moving up, notes CSUF economist Anil Puri, who oversees the survey.

The last time the index turned up was in April 2008, when it came in at 37.3 before plunging below 20 for three consecutive quarters. (Click on chart to enlarge.)

“There’s slightly a trend up, but it doesn’t mean it’s a trend,” says Puri.  “It may mean we are at the bottom or close to it, after all, you can only get so low.”

Puri says he was encouraged by the strong vote of confidence for Orange County’s economy from the 112 businesses that responded to the survey.

When asked to compare Orange County’s current economic performance to the nation’s, 37.3% thought we were doing better, 41.3% thought it was about the same and 20.9% believe things are worse here.

“There is no comparative data to draw further conclusions except to say that a majority feel that we are doing as well or better than the national economy,” concludes the survey.

The survey, which was conducted from March 23-27, offers a glimpse into the latest thinking among Orange County business leaders, who have been decidedly negative.

Puri thinks the relatively improved outlook may reflect overall optimism stemming from the resurgence of the stock market in the last month.

Other hints of good news from the survey:

• Overall business activity: 43% expect overall business activity to improve or stay the same vs. 23% in the first quarter 2009.
• Own industry activity: 30.1% see significant or some growth compared to 20.6% in the first quarter
• Employment: 21.6% plan to hire up from 11% in the first quarter
• Sales/revenues: 27.9% expect an increase a rise from 20.3% in the first quarter
• Operating profits: 27.3% see higher profits vs. 23.6% in the first quarter

Read the full Orange County Business Expectations report HERE.

Did you miss these recent economy stories …

O.C. businesses see glimmer of change is a post from: OC Business News

Capital Group Companies Irvine office

Most of the 250 jobs in Brea, which primarily houses customer service operations, are expected to be transferred to Irvine, says Amy Friend, company spokeswoman.

It’s part of a cost-savings program instituted in February after the company experienced a major drop in assets under management due to the stock market declines. In mid-2008, the company had more than a $1 trillion under management.  Friend says that figure had dropped to $975 billion as of Dec. 31

The company laid off 152 people in Irvine earlier this month as part of the cost-cutting, according to a notice filed with the state Employment Development Department.

Friend says the Brea facility at 140 S. State College Blvd. is in leased space.  Most of the company’s 2,300 Orange County employees are the Irvine campus, which Capital Group owns.

Capital Group’s move to Irvine is expected to take place by the end of June, Friend says.

It is the second major job loss announced in Brea this month. Mercury Insurance Group said earlier this month that it laid off 363 people companywide.  At least 94 of those were at its Orange County office in Brea, according to a notice filed with the state EDD. Workers, however, said more than 300 had been laid off in Brea.

See the Register’s list of major 2009 Orange County layoffs HERE.

(Photo from Capital Group Companies Web site)

Did you miss these recent economy stories …

For the latest on jobs …

Investment management firm closing O.C. office is a post from: OC Business News

Shares of Citigroup, once the nation’s most powerful bank, dipped below $1 but ended the regular trading day at $1.01, down 10.62%.

The Dow Jones Industrials lost 281.4 points or 4.09%, closing at 6,594.44, its lowest point since January 1997. Since its peak in October 2007, the Dow has lost 53% of its value. So far in 2009, the Dow has lost 25% of its value.

The S&P 500 lost 30.32 points or 4.25% to close at 682.55 today. The Nasdaq fell 54.15 points or 4% to close at 1,299.59.

Signs of economic troubles abound:

• Nearly 12% of homeowners were at least one month late paying their mortgage, the National Mortgage Bankers Association reported.
• Closer to home, the state reported that Orange County shed 64,600 jobs over the past year, boosting the unemployment rate to 7.5%. That ties the peak of the 1993 recession.
• Nationwide, jobless claims exceeded 600,000 for the fifth straight week.

Did you miss …

• O.C. weakest home market? San Juan Capo

• Americans want jobs, not housing incentives

• Loan delinquencies, foreclosures hit record highs nationwide

• Even services for the wealthy make recession adjustment

• Chase opens O.C. center for mortgage help

Stocks dive on bad GM, bank, housing, jobless news is a post from: OC Business News

Economist Adrian Fleissig bases his gloomy forecast on his Southern California Economic Indicator, a compilation of seven economic components ranging from employment to money supply.

The indicator declined 0.59% in the fourth quarter of 2008, suggesting the local economy will continue its downward spiral three to six more months.  The indicator has now declined for eight consecutive quarters, the worst stretch for the data, which dates back to 1990. (Click on chart to enlarge.)

Fleissig says the length and size of the decline is now much worse than the aerospace and real estate recession of the early 1990s.

“The indicator has fallen for more consecutive months and the declines are relatively larger,” Fleissig says.

Fleissig’s take on the current conditions:

The decrease of 0.59% in the fourth quarter of 2008 suggests a decrease in economic activity in the Southern California region in the next 3 to 6 months. Civilian employment in Southern California, which is notoriously erratic, subject to measurement errors and continually revised, showed a decrease in the fourth quarter of 2008 of 1.19%.
For the quarterly data, two out of the seven components had a positive impact on the Southern California leading indicator. The positive impacts were from the increase the money supply adjusted for inflation and the change in the interest rate spread. There were relatively large negative effects on the SC Leading Indicator from the decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, Pacific region consumer confidence index and regional building permits. The decrease in regional nonfarm employment and increase in regional unemployment also had negative impacts on the SC Leading Indicator.

Read the full report HERE.

Did you miss these other recent stories …

CSUF says SoCal slowdown worse than the ’90s is a post from: OC Business News

Instead, Cullen was summoned into a Riverside judge’s courtroom and was reprimanded for pressuring the juror. The judge refused to release the employee to return to his Anaheim workplace and even ordered Cullen to stop communicating with his employee.

Cullen said the employee is the only one of five workers who is able to complete an installation at a major company. Without him, the work can’t be done and the company will lose money.

Do you agree with the judge? Read the full story and take a poll here.

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Judge refuses to release juror despite company’s hardship is a post from: OC Business News

The worst may not be behind Orange County manufacturers who appear to be bracing for even harder times during the first three months of this year, reports Chapman University.

“It looks really terrible for Orange County,” says economist Raymond Sfeir, who oversees the quarterly survey of local purchasing managers for the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research.

Expectations in the school’s Orange County Composite Index for the first quarter of 2009 dropped to 33.8, the lowest since 1993.  The fourth quarter of 2001 previously had the worst showing at 36.3. (A quarterly index number above 50 means the economy is expanding; below 50 is contraction.)

The jobs portion of the index is even more dismal, with Orange County manufacturing managers expecting the index to shrink to 29.7 this quarter from 37.9 in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Statewide, manufacturers are doing somewhat better. First quarter expectations in the California Composite Index fell to 40.5 from 44.7 in the last three months of 2008. (Click on chart to enlarge.)

Sfeir says the malaise has spread to all sectors.

“The cuts are across all industries, not just durable and nondurable goods, but high tech, too,” says Sfeir. “High tech had been doing OK, but now it’s being affected, too.”

Members of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee bolsters the negative sentiments.  Here’s what they had to say after today’s meeting:

Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the economy has weakened further. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending.

Read the Fed’s full comment HERE.

Although the survey didn’t specifically ask about the second quarter, Sfeir says he’s worried this may not be the bottom.

“It’s not clear if this is the worst or if the second quarter will be worse or equally as bad,” Sfeir says.

Read the full Chapman purchasing managers survey HERE.

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O.C. manufacturers expect worst quarter ever is a post from: OC Business News